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| Friday, November 20, 2009 |
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ANALYSIS
March 2, 2009
Sagging Index no longer reflects what’s going on in the market, some say, Replacements? Google it, to start.
March 2, 2009
Downward price spiral will actually boost the cost of capital for most companies. CFOS, take note.
March 2, 2009
The latest bailout at AIG could be a preview of how the president will deal with Wall Street.
March 2, 2009
No corporate defaults. Big debt offerings. Percolating CP issuance. Things may be looking up in the capital markets.
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September 2, 2008 2:39 PM ET
Despite the problems on Wall Street, there’s been surprisingly little talk around the Republican convention about whether New York City would be displaced as the country’s leading economic center. In fact, some said the financial fate of the Big Apple may hinge more on who presides over City Hall than the White House. “I just think that New York is always going to be New York,” said Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.) in an interview with Financial Week. He noted that while tax policies could drive companies to other markets, local factors could have a bigger impact. “It’s partly governmental, but it’s also partly symbolic. And I think [Mayor Michael] Bloomberg being in New York City means a lot.” Mr. King said that a third Bloomberg term could have a bigger positive impact on the New York economy than a John McCain presidency. Mr. Bloomberg is reportedly considering whether to seek an extension in term limits that would allow him to run for a third term, after his second ends next year. > Concern about cap gains tax could plump up McCain war chest Conservatives have sought to paint Sen. Barack Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal, and have focused on his plans to increase the capital gains tax rate from 15% to 20%. Mr. McCain favors keeping the rate at 15%. But businesses—in particular, Wall Street firms—have not been shy about donating to Mr. Obama, whose fund-raising in fact has outstripped Mr. McCain’s fund-raising in many ways. Addressing the seeming disparity, Mr. King said that while Mr. Obama’s fund-raising among businesses has been impressive, it may not last. Mr. King said he initially didn’t think Mr. Obama “would raise a nickel” in the primaries and expected that Hillary Clinton would raise the most money from Wall Street of the Democratic candidates. “I don’t think [Wall Street contributors] sat down and actually analyzed [the candidates’] economic programs,” he said. The capital gains issue is what may sway many firms and corporations to the Republican ticket. Mr. King said. “The business people I’ve spoken to in the past few weeks seem to be coming to McCain.” Republican candidate Liz Berney, a Republican candidate for a congressional seat on Long Island, N.Y., is also touting tax relief as one of her main platforms, saying it remains a major issue for her constituency. > McCain staffers playing the 9/11 card Not surprisingly, leading McCain campaign staffers and politicos sought to frame the presidential race as being less about the economy, which has been the No. 1 issue on voters’ minds, than national security. This November, if voters don’t pick “the right person, we’re going to have more tragedies like we suffered in New York on 9/11,” warned Ed Cox, chairman of Mr. McCain’s campaign in the Empire State. Speaking before the New York delegation Sunday morning, Mr. Cox pointed out former CIA station chief Gary Berntsen, who got a standing ovation. Mr. Cox said the terrorist attacks of September 11 are as relevant today as they were in 2004. “Some things you do not forget,” he told reporters. As for the economy, Mr. Cox says it showing some signs of strength, growing at annualized 3.3% rate during the last quarter. “That’s pretty good…and I think that takes the economy to a certain extent off the table here, and the national security issues become more important.” > The ballroom at the Minneapolis Marriott hotel was packed with delegates, from one man with a shirt boasting at least three dozen McCain and GOP buttons to an investor who recently started a mutual fund that touts the benefits of investing only when Congress is out of session. Eric Singer, whose Congressional Effect Management started up three months ago, invests in S&P 500 companies only when Congress is in recess. He said research on the markets going back to 1965 shows that when lawmakers are at work, the stock market’s price gain is a paltry 1.6%. When lawmakers vacate Capitol Hill, price gains reach 17.6%. Further, when government is split—as in, one party controls the presidency and the other Congress—markets perform better, Mr. Singer said. Such a scenario would occur next year only if Mr. McCain wins, as the Democrats are assured majorities in both the House and Senate. Mr. Singer declined to say whether he voted against President Bush in 2004, when Republicans held majorities in both the legislature and the White House.
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