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ANALYSIS

Sagging Index no longer reflects what’s going on in the market, some say, Replacements? Google it, to start.
 
Downward price spiral will actually boost the cost of capital for most companies. CFOS, take note.
 
The latest bailout at AIG could be a preview of how the president will deal with Wall Street.
 
No corporate defaults. Big debt offerings. Percolating CP issuance. Things may be looking up in the capital markets.
 
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Bye-bye easy LBOs, says bond guru Bill Gross

By Megan Johnston

The manager of the world’s largest bond fund says the wave of leveraged buyouts kept afloat by easy credit terms and covenant-lite deals is coming to an end—and that won’t be good for the U.S. economy.

“The tide appears to be going out for levered equity financiers and in for the passive owl money managers of the debt market,” said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., in an investment commentary published today at pimco.com.

Mr. Gross said that the increasing cost of financing being seen especially in the high-yield credit markets would slow corporate growth as much as, if not more than, a rate hike by the Federal Reserve would. “The Fed tightens credit by raising short-term rates, but rarely, if ever, have they raised yields by 150 basis points in a month and a half’s time as has occurred in the high-yield market,” Mr. Gross added.

The manager of Pimco Total Return fund, with about $100 billion in assets, also criticized the credit rating agencies for taking too long to downgrade hundreds of subprime issues, as they did two weeks ago. He warned that many institutional investors believe that the same may be in store for collateralized loan obligations that have pure corporate credit backing. “That growing lack of confidence—more so than the defaults of two Bear Stearns hedge funds and the threat of more to come—has frozen future lending and backed up the market for high-yield new issues,” he said.

All eyes will be on this week’s placing and pricing of the Chrysler Finance and Chrysler auto deals, to see what the market’s new level for debt should be, predicted Mr. Gross.

Write to the editors at fw_editor@financialweek.com.
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